Margin of Safety(안전마진)

Margin of Safety(안전마진)

 

Posted By: Steve Burnson: 

 

“A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.” – Seth Klarman

안전 마진은 복잡하고 예측할 수 없으며 빠르게 변화하는 세상에서 인적 오류, 불운 또는 극심한 변동성을 허용할 수 있을 정도로 기본 가치보다 충분히 낮은 가격으로 증권을 구매할 때 달성됩니다." – 세스 클라먼

For investors the margin of safety is the variance between the fundamental value of the underlying company of a stock and its current price.  It is a principle in investing where an investor only buys stocks when its price is much lower than the company’s intrinsic value. When price is trading far lower than the quantified intrinsic value metrics, the difference between the true value and the current price is the margin of safety. This safety margin gives an investment position room to be wrong with the timing of a purchase and minimizes the size of the risk of loss to the downside.

투자자에게 안전 마진은 기본 회사의 기본 가치와 현재 가격 간의 차이입니다. 주가가 기업의 내재가치보다 훨씬 낮을 때만 주식을 사는 것이 투자의 원칙이다. 가격이 정량화된 내재가치 지표보다 훨씬 낮게 거래될 때 실제 가치와 현재 가격의 차이가 안전마진입니다. 이 안전마진은 투자 포지션이 매수 시기에 잘못될 여지를 주고, 손실 위험의 크기를 하방으로 최소화합니다.

For traders the margin of safety is the variance price is from the technical value zone on a chart. If the value zone for a chart is the 20-day exponential moving average for example then the lower a stock is below this line the better the margin of safety for a deep dip buy and a reversion to the mean of the 20-day EMA. Price can be measured in average true range or deviations from this central line using Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channels. Shorting at the 3rd upper band or channel or buying at the 3rd lower band or channel can create a margin of safety for a trader of the price continuing to move against the position. Margin of safety is used in trading to short extremely overbought levels or buy very oversold levels on a chart. 

트레이더의 경우 안전 마진은 차트의 기술적 가치 영역의 변동 가격입니다. 예를 들어 차트의 가치 영역이 20일 지수 이동 평균이면 이 선 아래에 있는 주식이 낮을수록 딥 딥 매수의 안전 마진이 더 좋고 20일 EMA의 평균으로 되돌아갑니다. 가격은 볼린저 밴드 또는 켈트너 채널을 사용하여 이 중심선의 평균 실제 범위 또는 편차로 측정할 수 있습니다. 세 번째 상위 밴드 또는 채널에서 공매도하거나 세 번째 하위 밴드 또는 채널에서 매수하면 해당 포지션에 대해 계속 움직이는 가격의 거래자에게 안전 마진을 생성할 수 있습니다. 안전 마진은 차트에서 매우 과매수 수준을 매도하거나 매우 과매도 수준을 매수하는 데 사용됩니다.

Chart Courtesy of TrendSpider.com

 

“You have to have the knowledge to enable you to make a very general estimate about the value of the underlying business. But you do not cut it close. That is what Ben Graham meant by having a margin of safety. You don’t try to buy businesses worth $83 million for $80 million. You leave yourself an enormous margin. When you build a bridge, you insist it can carry 30,000 pounds, but you only drive 10,000 pound trucks across it. And that same principle works in investing.” – Warren Buffett

“기본 비즈니스의 가치에 대해 매우 일반적으로 추정할 수 있는 지식이 있어야 합니다. 그러나 당신은 그것을 가까이에서 자르지 않습니다. 이것이 Ben Graham이 안전 여유를 가지고 의미한 것입니다. 8300만 달러 가치가 있는 기업을 8000만 달러에 사려고 하지 않습니다. 당신은 자신에게 엄청난 여백을 남깁니다. 다리를 지을 때 30,000파운드를 운반할 수 있다고 주장하지만 10,000파운드 트럭만 운전할 수 있습니다. 그리고 그 동일한 원칙이 투자에도 적용됩니다.” - 워렌 버핏