What Is a Reversal?(반전이란?)

What Is a Reversal?(반전이란?)

A reversal is a change in the price direction of an asset. A reversal can occur to the upside or downside. Following an uptrend, a reversal would be to the downside. Following a downtrend, a reversal would be to the upside. Reversals are based on overall price direction and are not typically based on one or two periods/bars on a chart.

반전은 자산의 가격 방향을 변경하는 것입니다. 반전은 위쪽 또는 아래쪽으로 발생할 수 있습니다. 상승 추세 이후 반전은 하락이 될 것입니다. 하락추세 이후 반전은 상승이 될 것입니다. 반전은 전반적인 가격 방향을 기반으로 하며 일반적으로 차트의 하나 또는 두 개의 기간/막대를 기반으로 하지 않습니다.

Certain indicators, such a moving average, oscillator, or channel, may help in isolating trends as well as spotting reversals. Reversals may be compared with breakouts.

이동 평균, 오실레이터 또는 채널과 같은 특정 지표는 추세를 분리하고 반전을 찾는 데 도움이 될 수 있습니다. 반전은 탈주와 비교할 수 있습니다.

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS(핵심 테이크웨이)

 

● A reversal is when the direction of a price trend has changed, from going up to going down, or vice-versa.

반전은 가격 추세의 방향이 상승에서 하락으로 또는 그 반대로 변경된 경우입니다.

● Traders try to get out of positions that are aligned(같은 태도를 취하다) with the trend prior to a reversal,(반전 전에 )or they will get out once they see the reversal underway.

트레이더는 반전이 일어나기 전에 추세와 일치하는 위치에서 벗어나려고 하거나, 반전이 진행 중인 것을 보면 빠져나갈 것입니다.

 

● Reversals typically refer to large price changes, where the trend changes direction. Small counter-moves against the trend are called pullbacks or consolidations.

반전은 일반적으로 큰 가격 변화를 말하며, 추세가 방향을 바꾼다. 이러한 추세에 대한 작은 반대 운동을 풀백 또는 통합이라고 한다.(통합보다는 그냥 consolidations.이라고 하는 것이 좋을 듯)

● When it starts to occur, a reversal isn't distinguishable from a pullback. A reversal keeps going and forms a new trend, while a pullback ends and then the price starts moving back in the trending direction.

 

그것이 일어나기 시작하면, 반전은 풀백과 구별될 수 없다. 반전은 계속 진행되어 새로운 추세를 형성하고, 풀백은 끝나고 가격은 추세 방향으로 다시 이동하기 시작한다.

(결국 반전은 새로운 추세로 형성되고 반전이라던가 consolidation은 다시 이전 추세로 돌아가는 현상으로 구별된다)

 

What Does a Reversal Tell You?

반전이 당신에게 무엇을 말해주나요?

 

Reversals often occur in intraday trading and happen rather quickly, but they also occur over days, weeks, and years. Reversals occur on different time frames which are relevant to different traders. An intraday reversal on a five-minute chart doesn't matter to a long-term investor who is watching for a reversal on daily or weekly charts. Yet, the five-minute reversal is very important to a day trader.

반전은 종종 일중 거래에서 발생하고 오히려 빠르게 발생하지만 일, 주, 수년에 걸쳐 발생하기도 합니다. 반전은 다른 거래자와 관련된 다른 시간 프레임에서 발생합니다. 5분 차트의 일중 반전은 일간 또는 주간 차트에서 반전을 주시하는 장기 투자자에게 중요하지 않습니다. 그러나 5분의 반전은 데이 트레이더에게 매우 중요합니다.

An uptrend, which is a series of higher swing highs and higher lows, reverses into a downtrend by changing to a series of lower highs and lower lows. A downtrend, which is a series of lower highs and lower lows, reverses into an uptrend by changing to a series of higher highs and higher lows.

일련의 더 높은 스윙 고점과 더 높은 저점인 상승 추세는 일련의 더 낮은 고점과 더 낮은 저점으로 변경하여 하락 추세로 반전됩니다. 일련의 더 낮은 고점과 더 낮은 저점인 하락 추세는 일련의 더 높은 고점과 더 높은 저점으로 변경하여 상승 추세로 반전됩니다.

Trends and reversals can be identified based on price action alone, as described above, or other traders prefer the use of indicators. Moving averages may aid in spotting both the trend and reversals. If the price is above a rising moving average then the trend is up, but when the price drops below the moving average that could signal a potential price reversal.

추세와 반전은 위에서 설명한 대로 가격 행동만으로 식별할 수 있거나 다른 거래자가 지표 사용을 선호합니다. 이동 평균은 추세와 반전을 모두 파악하는 데 도움이 될 수 있습니다. 가격이 상승 이동 평균보다 높으면 추세가 상승하지만 가격이 이동 평균 아래로 떨어지면 잠재적인 가격 반전을 나타낼 수 있습니다.

Trendlines are also used to spot reversals. Since an uptrend makes higher lows, a trendline can be drawn along those higher lows. When the price drops below the trendline, that could indicate a trend reversal.

추세선은 반전을 찾는 데도 사용됩니다. 상승 추세는 더 높은 저점을 만들기 때문에 추세선은 더 높은 저점을 따라 그려질 수 있습니다. 가격이 추세선 아래로 떨어지면 추세 반전을 나타낼 수 있습니다.

If reversals were easy to spot, and to differentiate from noise or brief pullbacks, trading would be easy. But it isn't. Whether using price action or indicators, many false signals occur and sometimes reversals happen so quickly that traders aren't able to act quickly enough to avoid a large loss.

반전이 쉽게 발견되고 소음이나 짧은 하락과 구별된다면 거래가 쉬울 것입니다. 하지만 그렇지 않습니다. 가격 조치를 사용하든 지표를 사용하든 많은 잘못된 신호가 발생하고 때로는 반전이 너무 빨리 발생하여 거래자가 큰 손실을 피할 수 있을 만큼 신속하게 행동할 수 없습니다.

 

Example of How to Use a Reversal

반전을 사용하는 방법의 예

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2020

Sabrina Jiang의 이미지 © Investopedia 2020

 

The chart shows an uptrend moving with a channel, making overall higher highs and higher lows. The price first breaks out of the channel and below the trendline, signaling a possible trend change. The price then also makes a lower low, dropping below the prior low within the channel. This further confirms the reversal to the downside.

차트는 채널과 함께 움직이는 상승 추세를 보여주며 전반적으로 더 높은 고점과 더 높은 저점을 만듭니다. 가격은 먼저 채널을 벗어나 추세선 아래에서 이탈하여 가능한 추세 변화를 나타냅니다. 그런 다음 가격은 낮은 저점을 만들어 채널 내에서 이전 저점 아래로 떨어집니다. 이는 하락으로의 반전을 더욱 확인시켜 줍니다.

The price then continues lower, making lower lows and lower highs. A reversal to the upside won't occur until the price makes a higher high and higher low. A move above the descending trendline, though, could issue an early warning sign of a reversal.

그리고 나서 가격은 계속 낮아져 낮은 최저치와 낮은 최고치를 만든다 . 가격이 더 높은  고점과 높은 저점을 만들 때까지  상승으로 번전은 일어나지 않을 것이다. 그러나 하강 추세선을 넘어서는 움직임은 반전의 조기 경고 신호를 발할 수 있다.

Referring to the rising channel, the example also highlights the subjectivity of trend analysis and reversals. Several times within the channel the price makes a lower low relative to a prior swing, and yet the overall trajectory remained up.

상승 채널과 관련하여 이 예는 추세 분석 및 반전의 주관성을 강조합니다. 채널 내에서 가격이 이전 스윙에 비해 낮은 저점을 만드는 경우가 여러 번 있지만 전체 궤적은 그대로 유지되었습니다.

 

Difference Between a Reversal and a Pullback

반전과 풀백의 차이점

 

A reversal is a trend change in the price of an asset. A pullback is a counter-move within a trend that doesn't reverse the trend. An uptrend is created by higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Pullbacks create the higher lows. Therefore, a reversal of the uptrend doesn't occur until the price makes a lower low on the time frame the trader is watching. Reversals always start as potential pullbacks. Which one it will ultimately turn out to be is unknown when it starts.

반전은 자산 가격의 추세 변화입니다. 풀백은 추세를 뒤집지 않는 추세 내에서 반대 움직임입니다. 상승 추세는 더 높은 스윙 고점과 더 높은 스윙 저점에 의해 생성됩니다. 풀백은 더 높은 저점을 만듭니다. 따라서 상승 추세의 반전은 거래자가 보고 있는 시간 프레임에서 가격이 더 낮아질 때까지 발생하지 않습니다. 반전은 항상 잠재적인 후퇴로 시작됩니다. 그것이 시작될 때 궁극적으로 어느 것이 밝혀질지는 알 수 없습니다.

 

Limitations In Using Reversals

반전 사용의 제한 사항

 

Reversals are a fact of life in the financial markets. Prices always reverse at some point and will have multiple upside and downside reversals over time. Ignoring reversals may result in taking more risk than anticipated. For example, a trader believes that a stock which has moved from $4 to $5 is well positioned to become much more valuable. They rode the trend higher, but now the stock is dropping to $4, $3, then $2. Reversal signs were likely evident well before the stock reached $2. Likely they were visible at before the price reached $4. Therefore, by watching for reversals the trader could have locked in profit or kept themselves out of a now losing position.

반전은 금융 시장의 현실입니다. 가격은 항상 어느 시점에서 반전되며 시간이 지남에 따라 여러 번의 상승 및 하락 반전이 있습니다. 반전을 무시하면 예상보다 더 많은 위험을 감수할 수 있습니다. 예를 들어, 거래자는 $4에서 $5로 이동한 주식이 훨씬 더 가치가 높아질 수 있는 좋은 위치에 있다고 믿습니다. 그들은 더 높은 추세를 탔지만 이제 주가는 $4, $3, $2로 떨어지고 있습니다. 주가가 2달러에 도달하기 훨씬 전에 반전 신호가 분명했을 것입니다. 가격이 $4에 도달하기 전에 에 표시되었을 수 있습니다. 따라서 반전을 관찰함으로써 거래자는 이익을 확보하거나 현재 손실되는 위치에서 벗어날 수 있었을 것입니다.

When a reversal starts, it isn't clear whether it is a reversal or a pullback. Once it is evident it is a reversal, the price may have already moved a significant distance, resulting in a sizable loss or profit erosion for the trader. For this reason, trend traders often exit while the price is still moving in their direction. That way they don't need to worry about whether the counter-trend move is a pullback or reversal.

반전이 시작되면 반전인지 후퇴인지 명확하지 않습니다. 반전이라는 것이 분명해지면 가격이 이미 상당한 거리를 이동하여 거래자에게 상당한 손실이나 이익 감소를 초래할 수 있습니다. 이러한 이유로 추세 트레이더는 가격이 여전히 자신의 방향으로 움직이고 있는 동안 종종 퇴장합니다. 그렇게 하면 역추세 움직임이 후퇴인지 반전인지에 대해 걱정할 필요가 없습니다.

False signals are also a reality. A reversal may occur using an indicator or price action, but then the price immediately resumes to move in the prior trending direction again.

잘못된 신호도 현실입니다. 지표 또는 가격 조치를 사용하여 반전이 발생할 수 있지만 가격은 즉시 이전 추세 방향으로 다시 움직이기 시작합니다