Calculated Risk(계산된 위험)

Calculated Risk(계산된 위험)

 

Posted By: Steve Burnson: 

 

A calculated risk is taken when the probability and size of potential success is estimated along with the magnitude of a possible loss is considered before a decision is made involving the potential of failure. A calculated risk tries to determine if the risk is worth the reward based on the probabilities between success and failure. It’s an undertaking whose potential for failure has already been estimated before any action is taken. 

실패 가능성과 관련된 결정이 내려지기 전에 가능한 손실의 크기와 함께 잠재적 성공의 확률과 크기가 추정될 때 계산된 위험이 취해집니다. 계산된 위험은 성공과 실패 사이의 확률을 기반으로 위험이 보상을 받을 가치가 있는지 결정하려고 합니다. 조치를 취하기 전에 실패 가능성이 이미 추정된 사업입니다.

Calculated risk-taking is defined as the skill of making decisions based on incomplete information and an unknown future. The skill requires the ability to act decisively based on all options available while filtering the decision making through the process of risk management and gain optimization. Traders, investors, professional gamblers, entrepreneurs, and executives must all make risky decisions to optimize returns on capital while considering the potential risk of failure. 

계산된 위험 감수는 불완전한 정보와 알 수 없는 미래를 기반으로 결정을 내리는 기술로 정의됩니다. 이 기술은 위험 관리 프로세스를 통해 의사 결정을 필터링하고 최적화를 얻는 동안 사용 가능한 모든 옵션을 기반으로 단호하게 행동하는 능력이 필요합니다. 거래자, 투자자, 전문 도박꾼, 기업가 및 경영진은 모두 잠재적인 실패 위험을 고려하면서 자본 수익을 최적화하기 위해 위험한 결정을 내려야 합니다.

Calculated risk questions:(계산된 위험 질문 :)

 

What will be gained if maximum success is achieved?

최대의 성공을 달성하면 무엇을 얻을 수 있을까?

What will be lost in the worst case scenario?

최악의 경우 어떤 것이 사라질까?

What is the risk/reward ratio on this bet?

 이 내기에 대한 위험/보상 비율은 얼마입니까? 

What is the probability of success?

성공 확률은 얼마나 될까? 

What are the consequences of failure?

실패의 결과는 무엇인가?

What are the odds of the risk or ruin?

위험이나 파멸의 확률은 얼마나 될까? 

How will I know the attempt failed?

그 시도가 실패했는지 내가 어떻게 알 수 있을까?

When will I know that the attempt failed?

 그 시도가 실패했다는 것을 언제 알 수 있을까?

What lesson will I learn through the results either way?

 어느 쪽이든 결과를 통해 어떤 교훈을 얻을 수 있을까?

What long-term damage could the attempt do?

 그 시도가 얼마의 장기적인 피해를 입힐 수 있을까? 

How many times do I have to try for a high probability of success?

성공 확률이 높은 것을 위해 몇 번이나 시도해야 하는가? 

How many times can I attempt to succeed?

성공하려고 몇 번이나 시도할 수 있을까?