Trading is a Game of Odds(거래는 승산의 게임입니다)

Trading is a Game of Odds(거래는 승산의 게임입니다)

 

Posted By: Steve Burnson: 

 

This is a guest post by PattensWizard on Twitter. 

이것은 PattensWizard의 Twitter 게스트 게시물입니다.

“No one can predict the market consistently. It is all about odds, statistics, probabilities, and avoiding the risk of ruin.” – Henri Simoes

“시장을 일관되게 예측할 수 있는 사람은 아무도 없습니다. 확률, 통계, 확률 및 파멸의 위험을 피하는 것이 전부입니다.” – 앙리 시모에스

I believe this popular quote from Henri Simoes sums up trading in the best possible way. In life, trading and everything else, if there is something you can be sure of, it is that nothing is 100% certain. That’s definitely why I love this quote.

나는 Henri Simoes의 이 인기 있는 인용문이 가능한 한 최선의 방법으로 거래를 요약한다고 믿습니다. 인생, 거래 및 기타 모든 것에 대해 확신할 수 있는 것이 있다면 100% 확실한 것은 없다는 것입니다. 이것이 내가 이 인용문을 좋아하는 이유입니다.

It perfectly encapsulates(요야하다) the saying that trading is an odds game and a game of probabilities. The arena(경기장: 분야) of trading and investing is full of surprises and uncertainties. Without being random, almost anything can happen in the trading sphere.(구 영역) Therefore, traders should always prepare their minds accordingly. They need to understand that trading is all about odds and probabilities. In order to be successful, you have to bend luck for it to be on your side.

거래는 확률 게임이자 확률 게임이라는 말을 완벽하게 요약합니다. 거래 및 투자 분야는 놀라움과 불확실성으로 가득 차 있습니다. 무작위가 아닌 경우 거래 영역에서 거의 모든 일이 발생할 수 있습니다. 따라서 거래자는 항상 그에 따라 마음을 준비해야 합니다. 그들은 거래가 확률과 확률에 관한 것임을 이해해야 합니다. 성공하기 위해서는 운이 당신 편에 있도록 굽혀야 합니다.

I vividly remember the first time I looked at a price chart. It was crazy!
Prices went up and down. Green, red. Profit, loss. It felt so random.
What can explain these (sometimes sharp) moves?

처음 가격 차트를 보았을 때를 생생하게 기억합니다. 그것은 미쳤다!
가격이 오르락 내리락했습니다. 녹색, 빨간색. 이익, 손실. 너무 랜덤하게 느껴졌다.
이러한 (때때로 날카로운) 움직임을 무엇으로 설명할 수 있습니까?

When I started trading, I knew that learning and training were important. I spent a lot of time learning skills and training. I learned to read and analyze charts. I learned technical and fundamental analysis in order to increase the chances of my success. I used to doubt myself, my system, and my strategy whenever I made losing trades. I used to think about improving and getting better. I would look for new books, new content, and new courses to learn more secrets of success. I would spend weeks figuring out what went wrong and making changes to my system and strategies. I would stress out (스트레스를 풀다 스트레스를 받다)because I didn’t know what would happen next. And guess what, nothing changed.

거래를 시작했을 때 학습과 훈련이 중요하다는 것을 알았습니다. 나는 기술과 훈련을 배우는 데 많은 시간을 보냈다. 차트를 읽고 분석하는 방법을 배웠습니다. 나는 내 성공의 기회를 높이기 위해 기술 및 기본 분석을 배웠습니다. 나는 손실 거래를 할 때마다 나 자신, 내 시스템, 내 전략을 의심하곤 했습니다. 개선하고 더 나아지는 것에 대해 생각하곤 했습니다. 나는 성공의 더 많은 비밀을 배우기 위해 새로운 책, 새로운 콘텐츠, 새로운 과정을 찾을 것입니다. 나는 무엇이 잘못되었는지 파악하고 내 시스템과 전략을 변경하는 데 몇 주를 보냈습니다. 다음에 무슨 일이 일어날지 모르기 때문에 스트레스를 받을 것입니다. 그리고 아무것도 바뀌지 않았습니다.

Until one day I understood.

어느 날까지 나는 이해했다.
Why stress out about every trade because in the end, anything can happen?
If anything can happen, why worry?

결국 모든 일이 일어날 수 있기 때문에 왜 모든 거래에 대해 스트레스를 받습니까?
무슨 일이 일어날 수 있다면 왜 걱정합니까?
Just plan for the worse, set the odds in your favor and ride the waves, consistently.

Embracing this more probabilistic view was quite liberating. I didn’t need to always be right anymore, I just needed to be “right enough” (meaning making enough money) often enough. That’s why I created PatternsWizard.com, to share my passion about trading statistics. New traders unfortunately often focus too much on learning, frequently change their strategies, and never refine one strategy. They think that losing trades indicates that something is wrong with their strategies and they need to fix it. Sure! Losing is not fun but believe me, you will never have success unless and until you embrace the fact that trading is an odds game. Losing is part of the process and likely is part of your system. You can increase the odds of winning with learning and experience but nothing guarantees 100% success. Why? Because no one on this earth can claim where the market is going and what it will do next. What we can only do is guess. Our guesses can be informed and educated but still, a guess is a guess and it can prove right as well as wrong.

더 나쁜 상황에 대비하고, 확률을 유리하게 설정하고, 지속적으로 파도를 타십시오.
이 보다 확률적인 관점을 수용하는 것은 상당히 해방적이었습니다. 나는 더 이상 항상 옳을 필요가 없었고, 단지 충분히 자주 "충분히 옳았으면"(충분한 돈을 벌었다는 의미)이 필요했습니다. 그래서 통계 거래에 대한 열정을 공유하기 위해 PatternWizard.com을 만들었습니다. 불행히도 새로운 거래자는 종종 학습에 너무 집중하고 전략을 자주 변경하며 한 가지 전략을 수정하지 않습니다. 그들은 거래를 잃는 것은 그들의 전략에 문제가 있고 그것을 고칠 필요가 있다는 것을 의미한다고 생각합니다. 확신하는! 지는 것은 재미가 없지만 제 말을 믿으세요. 거래가 확률 게임이라는 사실을 받아들이지 않는 한 성공할 수 없습니다. 손실은 프로세스의 일부이며 시스템의 일부일 가능성이 큽니다. 학습과 경험을 통해 승리 확률을 높일 수 있지만 100% 성공을 보장하는 것은 없습니다. 왜요? 이 지구상의 누구도 시장이 어디로 가고 있고 다음에 무엇을 할 것인지 주장할 수 없기 때문입니다. 우리가 할 수 있는 것은 추측하는 것뿐입니다. 우리의 추측은 정보를 제공하고 교육을 받을 수 있지만 여전히 추측은 추측이며 옳고 그름을 증명할 수 있습니다.

 

Trading can be summarized into 2 things :

거래는 두 가지로 요약할 수 있습니다.

 

How often do you “win”?

얼마나 자주 "승리"합니까?

How big do you win compared to how much you risk?
For example, if every time you are right you earn 10 for every 1 you risk, you could be right only 20% of the time (even down to 10%) and still make money on average.
That’s the “on average” that makes it all work. 

얼마나 많은 위험을 감수했는지에 비해 얼마나 큰 승리를 거둘 수 있습니까?
예를 들어, 당신이 옳을 때마다 위험을 감수할 때마다 10을 얻는다면, 당신은 시간의 20%만 옳을 수 있고(심지어 10%까지) 여전히 평균적으로 돈을 벌 수 있습니다.
그것이 모든 것을 작동시키는 "평균"입니다.
Find a system, make sure it’s statistically on your side and follow it.

시스템을 찾고 통계적으로 귀하의 편인지 확인하고 따르십시오.

Trading is an odds game.

거래는 확률 게임입니다.
That means you could see trading as a casino. Except here, you want to be the casino, not the gambler. Casinos always keep odds in their favor. They know that only a few percent of lucky people will win and the rest of them are definitely going to lose. They don’t know which one will win but they know on average they (as a predictable business) will be net winners. So, casinos are always going to be profitable as net profit increases as most people lose and only a few lucky ones win. If on average they win for every hand played(손놀림을 하다), they just have to focus on having more hands played. Similarly, you also need to increase the odds of success and be in net profit over the long run.

Don’t try to always be right.

즉, 거래를 카지노로 볼 수 있습니다. 여기를 제외하고 당신은 도박꾼이 아니라 카지노가 되고 싶어합니다. 카지노는 항상 자신에게 유리한 배당률을 유지합니다. 그들은 운이 좋은 사람들의 소수만이 승리하고 나머지는 확실히 질 것이라는 것을 알고 있습니다. 그들은 어느 쪽이 이길지 모르지만 평균적으로 (예측 가능한 비즈니스로서) 순 승자가 될 것이라는 것을 알고 있습니다. 따라서 카지노는 대부분의 사람들이 지고 소수의 운이 좋은 사람들만 이기면 순이익이 증가하므로 항상 수익성이 있습니다. 평균적으로 그들이 플레이한 모든 핸드에 대해 이기면 더 많은 핸드를 플레이하는 데 집중해야 합니다. 마찬가지로, 성공 확률을 높이고 장기적으로 순이익을 내야 합니다.
항상 옳으려고 하지 마세요.
Just do like the casino, be right on average.

카지노처럼 하고 평균적으로 옳게되십시오 .
Then play your edge often enough.

그런 다음 충분히 자주 에지를 플레이하십시오.

Another point to be noted is, casinos stick to their system knowing that they will be in profit over the long run. They let a few lucky ones win. Similarly, you also need to stick with your strategy and system. You can tweak(비틀다 변경하다) a little bit over time but don’t experiment (실험하다)too much.

주목해야 할 또 다른 요점은 카지노가 장기적으로 이익을 얻을 수 있다는 것을 알고 시스템을 고수한다는 것입니다. 그들은 운이 좋은 소수의 사람들이 이기도록 내버려 두었습니다. 마찬가지로 전략과 시스템을 고수해야 합니다. 시간이 지남에 따라 약간 조정할 수 있지만 너무 많이 실험하지 마십시오.
Do you have a system? Do you trust this system?

시스템이 있습니까? 이 시스템을 믿습니까?

To sum it up, be disciplined, don’t worry about losses, stick to your plans and strategies, and try to be in net profit just like casinos.

To sum it up, (요약하자면)be disciplined, don’t worry about losses, stick to your plans and strategies, and try to be in net profit just like casinos.

요약하자면, 훈련을 받고 손실에 대해 걱정하지 말고 계획과 전략을 고수하고 카지노처럼 순이익을 얻으십시오.
Never forget the fact that trading is an odds game and you have to turn odds in your favor.

거래는 승산 게임이고 승산을 자신에게 유리하게 바꿔야 한다는 사실을 절대 잊지 마십시오.