Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a best selling author, philosopher, scholar, and statistician. He had a long career as a professional option trader and hedge fund manager. His expertise was as a risk analyst focusing his work on the problems of outliers(국외자) and fat tail events of randomness. His books go into depth about the nature of probability and solutions for managing uncertainty.
나심 니콜라스 테일럽은 베스트셀러 작가, 철학자, 학자, 통계학자다. 그는 전문 옵션 트레이더와 헤지펀드 매니저로 오랜 경력을 쌓았다. 그의 전문 지식은 특이치의 문제와 무작위성의 뚱뚱한 꼬리 사건에 초점을 맞춘 위험 분석가였다. 그의 저서는 확률의 성격과 불확실성 관리를 위한 해결책에 대해 깊이 파고든다.
Here are some of his best quotes about price action trading in the financial markets.
여기 금융 시장에서의 가격 행동 거래에 대한 그의 가장 좋은 인용구들이 있다.
“Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.” –
“When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts(반박하다) these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.” –
“They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns)” –
“People overvalue their knowledge and underestimate the probability of their being wrong.” –
“When you ask people, ‘What’s the opposite of fragile?,’ they tend to say robust, resilient, adaptable, solid, strong. That’s not it. The opposite of fragile is something that gains from disorder.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
사람들에게 ‘약하기 쉬운 것과 반대되는 것은 무엇인가?’라고 물을 때, 그들은 강하고, 탄력적이며, 적응력이 좋고, 튼튼하다고 말하는 경향이 있다. 그게 아니야. 연약한 것의 반대는 무질서에서 얻는 것이다." - 나심 니콜라스 테일럽
“Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.” –
“Fragility is the quality of things that are vulnerable to volatility.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
연약함은 변동성에 취약한 물건의 질이다." - 나심 니콜라스 테일럽
“Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.” –
“You start betting aggressively whenever you have a profit, never when you have a deficit, as if a switch was turned on or off. This method is practiced by probably every single trader who has survived.” –
“No individual can get the same returns as the market unless he has infinite pockets and no uncle points. This is conflating(융합하다) ensemble probability and time probability.” –
“How much you truly “believe” in something can be manifested(명확하다) only through what you are willing to risk for it.” –
“Traders, when they make profits, have short communications; when they lose they drown you in details, theories, and charts.” – –
“The market is like a large movie theater with a small door.” –
“You will never fully convince someone that he is wrong; only reality can.” – –
“A price can drop by ten percent because of a single seller. All you need is a stubborn seller. Markets react in a way that is disproportional(불균형적으로;반대하여) to the impetus(충격).” –
When N.N. Taleb quizzed students on the best strategy to profit in casinos. Lot of answers but no one got the right one: start a casino.